FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|Purdue knows nothing is a given as No. 1 seed. Tennessee and Texas provide intriguing matchup

If the seeds were to hold form,FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center the Midwest Region final would match Purdue, which hasn’t been to the Final Four since 1980, against Tennessee, which hasn’t been to the Final Four ever.

Now, the question is whether either of those teams will get to the region final.

Tennessee, coach Rick Barnes’ current school, would have to get through — among others — Texas, one of Barnes’ former schools.

Purdue stands to get two virtual home games to start, with its first-round game and presumptive second-round game in Indianapolis, which is about an hour by car from West Lafayette. But as a No. 1 seed last year, the Boilermakers showed nothing is a given. Facing a No. 16-seed play-in winner, Fairleigh Dickinson, they lost. They again start with play-in winner, Montana State or Grambling.

USA TODAY Sports breaks down the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region:

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Best first-round matchup: Gonzaga vs. McNeese State

This has not been a vintage year for Gonzaga, and it’s ending up facing a McNeese team that went 30-3, averages 80 points a game and shoots nearly 40% from three-point range as a team. McNeese is led by grad student guard Shahada Wells, who averages 17.8 points, 4.8 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game. And could there be any greater contrast between Gonzaga and a team that styles itself as “the Bayou Bandits” (they force 16.5 turnovers per game, including just over 10 steals) or between the coaches – staid Mark Few, in his 25^th season with the Zags, vs. Will Wade, in his first season with McNeese after working at LSU (Google the term “strong-ass offer”).

Elsewhere in the first round, the current South Carolina team will know nothing of it — but Gamecocks fans of a certain age had to wince when they saw where their sixth-seeded team will be playing No. 11 seed Oregon: Pittsburgh, where the then-No. 2 seed Gamecocks suffered a first-round upset by No. 15 Coppin State in 1997.

Potential upset in first round: Samford vs. Kansas

Aside from McNeese State's ability to take down Gonzaga, look out for this one. The tournament selection committee did the Jayhawks no favors here. Their two best players, center Hunter Dickinson (dislocated shoulder) and Kevin McCullar (bone bruise in knee), could have used every hour of healing time they could get.

Instead, KU is playing on Thursday, although it will play in the last game of the day in Salt Lake City. The Jayhawks also lack depth, even with Dickinson and McCullar able to play. So, now they will have to contend with altitude in Salt Lake City and a Samford team that has 10 players averaging 12 minutes to 26 minutes a game and two other players averaging more than seven minutes. But one thing sticks out on Samford’s resume: Just one game this season against a Power Five opponent — the season-opener at Purdue, in which the Bulldogs got crushed, 98-45.

The sleeper: Creighton

Having just explained how Kansas could get upset by Samford in the first round, keep in mind that when Dickinson and McCullar are reasonably healthy, KU can beat anybody.

But the pick is the Bluejays. They advanced to the regional finals last year, losing by one point to San Diego State on a free throw with 1.2 seconds to play. Baylor Scheierman, a 6-7 guard; Ryan Kalkbrenner, a 7-1 center, and Trey Alexander, a 6-4 guard, are back from that team and each averaging more than 17 points per game.

Creighton has taken some tough losses this season, but it also has beaten Connecticut — albeit in Omaha in what was UConn’s third game in seven days.

The winner: Purdue

Given that the other team in NCAA Tournament history to lose in the first round as a No. 1 seed — Virginia — came back to win the national championship the following year, also as a No. 1 seed, how can you resist this one?

After spending much of this season ranked No. 1 in the nation, the Boilermakers showed their fallibility in losing to Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament semifinals. But guess what? That Virginia team that won the national championship did so after losing in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament semifinals. Oh, and by the way, en route to the NCAA tournament title, Virginia beat Purdue in the regional semifinals in overtime.

To get to the regional final this year, Purdue’s toughest test may come in the second round against TCU, if the Horned Frogs can get past Utah State. TCU has the kind of team speed that can cause problems for Purdue and potentially minimize the influence of its 7-4 senior center Zach Edey.

But karma is what it is.

NCAA Tournament Midwest region schedule

In Indianapolis

No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Montana State/Grambling

No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 TCU

In Salt Lake City

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 12 McNeese State

No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Samford

In Pittsburgh

No. 6 South Carolina vs. No. 11 Oregon

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 14 Akron

In Charlotte

No. 7 Texas vs. No. 10 Virginia/Colorado State

No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Saint Peter's