PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Why AP called Minnesota’s 5th District primary for Rep. Ilhan Omar over Don Samuels

WASHINGTON (AP) — Rep. Ilhan Omar won the Democratic primary in Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District on PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank CenterTuesday, defeating former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels in a rematch of the party’s 2022 primary. Omar improved on her 2022 margins in the district’s two largest counties, according to an Associated Press analysis of vote results at the time she was declared the winner.

Here’s a look at how the AP determined the winner:

U.S. House, Minnesota’s 5th District (D)

CANDIDATES: Omar, Samuels, Abena McKenzie, Nate Schluter

WINNER: Omar

CALLED AT: 10:40 p.m. ET

POLL CLOSING TIME: 9 p.m. ET

ABOUT THE RACE: The Democratic primary in Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District is the third race in as many months in which a member of the progressive U.S. House “Squad” was challenged by a more centrist liberal. A week after public prosecutor Wesley Bell defeated Rep. Cori Bush of Missouri, the second Squad member to lose their primary this year, Omar faced a rematch against Samuels. Samuels lost the 2022 Democratic primary to Omar by around 2,000 votes. In that race, as in this one, Samuels criticized Omar for divisive comments on Israel or ones that invoked antisemitic tropes. But unlike Bush and New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman, whose opponents benefited from spending by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s super PAC on their behalf, Omar had a spending advantage in her race. She spent $6.2 million going into the primary election day, almost $5 million more than Samuels. In 2022, she spent $2.3 million before the primary to Samuels’ $1.4 million. The 5th District is centered around Minneapolis and includes some of its western suburbs. It does not include St. Paul. Almost 90% of the district’s residents live in Hennepin County, with 8% in Anoka County and the rest — usually just a few hundred votes — coming from Ramsey County.

WHY AP CALLED THE RACE: Omar was first elected in 2018 to succeed retiring Rep. Keith Ellison. Her narrowest primary victory came against Samuels two years ago, when she lost the two smallest counties in the district but won the third — Hennepin — by enough to offset her losses in Ramsey and Anoka. Omar won Hennepin County that year 50.7% to Samuels’ 48%.

Samuels path to victory was to win in both Ramsey and Anoka, and run much closer in Hennepin than he did two years ago. But on Tuesday, Omar was slightly ahead in Anoka County when results from Hennepin were released — and they put her ahead by more than 13 percentage points. Ramsey had not yet reported results, but the county only reported 389 total votes cast in the 2022 primary — not nearly enough for Samuels to catch up.

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Associated Press writer Robert Yoon in Washington contributed to this report.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.